Russia’s Central Bank expects the crude glut on the global market to persist till 2017, according to the regulator’s report on monetary policy released on Friday.
“The estimates of the supply and demand balance on the global crude market have not changed significantly, the surplus of oil supply is expected to persist till 2017. Taking this into account, the Bank of Russia has kept its base case forecast of Urals crude oil price by the end of 2016 at the level of $40 per barrel,” the report said.
A possible decision to freeze oil production by the exported countries will not have a significant effect on the demand/supply balance on the global oil market or oil price, the report said.
“The negotiations on freezing oil production among OPEC countries and some large exporters outside the organization are unlikely to have a lasting effect on market conditions. This would be possible only if the parties have agreed on direct reduction of production in comparison with current levels, but such an outcome is very unlikely. A more likely solution – setting production and exports at the levels close to the current ones – will not significantly affect the demand/supply balance on the global oil market,” the report said.
Oil price will decline to about $40 per barrel in 2016 and remain on this level in 2017-2019, the bank said.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s energy ministers singed a joint statement aimed at stabilizing the crude market on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. The Ministers recognized the importance of maintaining the ongoing dialogue about current developments in oil and gas markets and indicated their mutual desire to further expand their bilateral relations in energy.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that Russia and Saudi Arabia are going to discuss freezing oil production for 3 or 6 months, maybe more.
The 15th International Energy Forum (IEF15) will be held in Algiers on September 26-28, 2016. According to the media, oil exporter countries might discuss freezing of oil production. Venezuela, Ecuador and Kuwait were the initiators of the discussion.